Analysis of the Balance between Supply and Demand of Arable Land in China Based on Food Security | Land Portal

Informations sur la ressource

Date of publication: 
janvier 2023
Resource Language: 
ISBN / Resource ID: 
LP-midp001998
Copyright details: 
© 2023 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article

Arable land is the natural resource of food production, plays a key role in safe guarding people’s livelihood, maintaining social stability, and ecological balance. In the context of the great challenge of rapid loss of arable land and rapid growth of food demand due to rapid socio-economic development, scientific forecasting of arable land demand and supply, can clarify the conservation pressure of regional arable land, provide a reference for formulating effective arable land policies, and ensuring regional food security and sustainable development. Therefore, with the help of system dynamics model and Gray-Markov model, this study predicts and analyzes the balance of arable land supply and demand in China, and reached the following conclusions. (1) During the projection period, with the continuous development of living standards and agricultural technology, both per capita food demand and food production show an upward trend. However, the combined effects of changes in diet structure and grain yields on changes in arable land demand are smaller than those brought about by population changes. Therefore, the trend of arable land demand is similar to that of population change, and the arable land demand in China reaches a peak of 112.78 million hm2 in 2026. (2) The amount of arable land possession is always greater than the amount of arable land replenishment, and the arable land supply area shows a continuous decreasing trend, and the arable land supply in China is 127.16 million hm2 in 2035. (3) China’s supply holdings are all able to meet the demand of China’s arable land, but combined with existing studies, it is insufficient to meet the demand of crop rotation fallow between 2023 and 2030, which is not conducive to sustainable development. In the future, arable land protection policies should be comprehensively improved and strictly implemented to ensure national food security and achieve sustainable use of arable land.

Auteurs et éditeurs

Author(s), editor(s), contributor(s): 

Yang, ShengqiangLi, DonglinLiao, HepingZhu, LinZhou, MiaomiaoCai, Zhicong

Corporate Author(s): 
sustainability-logo.png

 


Sustainability (ISSN 2071-1050; CODEN: SUSTDE) is an international, cross-disciplinary, scholarly and open access journal of environmental, cultural, economic, and social sustainability of human beings. Sustainabilityprovides an advanced forum for studies related to sustainability and sustainable development, and is published monthly online by MDPI. 


Sustainability is an Open Access journal.


    Publisher(s): 

    MDPI AG, a publisher of open-access scientific journals, was spun off from the Molecular Diversity Preservation International organization. It was formally registered by Shu-Kun Lin and Dietrich Rordorf in May 2010 in Basel, Switzerland, and maintains editorial offices in China, Spain and Serbia. MDPI relies primarily on article processing charges to cover the costs of editorial quality control and production of articles. Over 280 universities and institutes have joined the MDPI Institutional Open Access Program; authors from these organizations pay reduced article processing charges.

    Fournisseur de données

    MDPI AG, a publisher of open-access scientific journals, was spun off from the Molecular Diversity Preservation International organization. It was formally registered by Shu-Kun Lin and Dietrich Rordorf in May 2010 in Basel, Switzerland, and maintains editorial offices in China, Spain and Serbia. MDPI relies primarily on article processing charges to cover the costs of editorial quality control and production of articles. Over 280 universities and institutes have joined the MDPI Institutional Open Access Program; authors from these organizations pay reduced article processing charges.

    Partagez cette page