Understanding the hydrological impacts of climate change in the Tana River Basin | Land Portal

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Date of publication: 
décembre 2017
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The Tana River is one of Kenya’s most important rivers. It is the principal water source for Nairobi, the capital city, providing water for hydroelectric power generation and irrigation. Several of the flagship projects laid out in Vision 2030 - the blueprint that guides Kenya’s national development – are located in the basin. This report presents the findings of a study to determine the possible impacts of climate change on the hydrology of the basin. Data from seven Regional Circulation Models (RCMs), simulating two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), were used as input to the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. For both RCPs, rainfall is projected to increase across the basin over the remainder of the twenty-first century. Associated increases in water yield, groundwater recharge and baseflow point to an improved water resource situation in the future. However, declining natural flow regulation, increased variability, and considerable increases in the frequency and magnitude of floods pose a risk that threatens to undermine development opportunities. Water resource management will be much more difficult than under historic climatic conditions.

Auteurs et éditeurs

Author(s), editor(s), contributor(s): 

Sood, Aditya
Muthuwatta, Lal P.
Silva, Sandeepana
McCartney, Matthew P.


The International Water Management Institute (IWMI) is a non-profit, scientific research organization focusing on the sustainable use of water and land resources in developing countries. It is headquartered in Colombo, Sri Lanka, with regional offices across Asia and Africa. IWMI works in partnership with governments, civil society and the private sector to develop scalable agricultural water management solutions that have a real impact on poverty reduction, food security and ecosystem health. IWMI is a member of CGIAR, a global research partnership for a food-secure future.

Fournisseur de données


CGIAR is the only worldwide partnership addressing agricultural research for development, whose work contributes to the global effort to tackle poverty, hunger and major nutrition imbalances, and environmental degradation.

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