Modeling residential development in California from 2000 to 2050: Integrating wildfire risk, wildland and agricultural encroachment | Land Portal

Resource information

Date of publication: 
November 2014
Resource Language: 
ISBN / Resource ID: 

Between 1940 and 2000, nearly 10 million housing units were constructed throughout California. This increased interaction between human and natural communities creates a number of significant socio-ecological challenges. Here we present a novel spatially explicit model that allows better characterization of the extent and intensity of future housing settlements using three development scenarios between 2000 and 2050. We estimate that California's exurban land classes will replace nearly 12 million acres of wild and agricultural lands. This will increase threats to ecosystems and those presented by wildfire, as the number of houses in ‘very high’ wildfire severity zones increases by nearly 1 million.

Authors and Publishers

Author(s), editor(s), contributor(s): 

Mann, Michael L.
Berck, Peter
Moritz, Max A.
Batllori, Enric
Baldwin, James G.
Gately, Conor K.
Cameron, D. Richard


Land Use Policy is an international and interdisciplinary journal concerned with the social, economic, political, legal, physical and planning aspects of urban and rural land use. It provides a forum for the exchange of ideas and information from the diverse range of disciplines and interest groups which must be combined to formulate effective land use policies.

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